https://philosophyoferrors.org/Every new draft of every book section, essay and research page by Ivan Iufriakov.enhttps://philosophyoferrors.org/essays/penalties-and-highways/2/https://philosophyoferrors.org/essays/penalties-and-highways/2/Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000Draft 2 · 2026-10-16 · Established: the figures, which come from the sources listed at the end (checked 2026-10-16) · Not established: the recovery-window idea is the author's argument, not a tested result; the AI-agent part states a working hypothesis and open questions, not findings · Changed: After a review of facts and project rules: several figures and their caveats corrected (Messi's rate, the near-crash and inattention figures), Diane Vaughan credited for the normalization of deviance, METR's note on harder tasks added, and the margin argument made conditional.